The risk of death and injury from a fire at home, at work and in the wider community tragically still exists across the UK. Around three-quarters of fire deaths still occur in dwellings. Across England in the year to March 2024, there were 251 fire-related deaths – a decrease of 5.3% compared with the previous year; unchanged compared with five years ago, and a decrease of 9.1% compared with 10 years ago (HMG Home Office, 2024). Over the last ten years there have been 30 fire-related deaths in York and North Yorkshire.

The number of fires attended by Fire and Rescue Services nationally saw a significant decline over a decade, dropping by approximately two-thirds from a peak of about 474,000 in the year ending March 2004 to roughly 154,000 by March 2013. Since then, the annual number of fires has varied between 150,000 and 185,000, with the highest number recorded in the year ending March 2019, largely due to the hot, dry summer of 2018. The year ending March 2021 had the lowest recorded number of fires since comparable records began in March 1996, likely influenced by the restrictions imposed during the COVID-19 pandemic (HMG Home Office, 2024).

The downward trends reflects the proactive prevention and protection work we carry out
to stop these incidents from occurring in the first place, as well as improved fire safety
standards, building design and regulations, changing cooking habits, increased smoke alarm ownership, and a reduction in smoking (HMG Home Office, 2020).

The fact that the downward trend has slowed over recent years shows that there are some members of the community who are harder to reach, and we need to concentrate resources to ensure we can deliver proactive safety advice to those people who still have a higher likelihood of experiencing a dwelling fire.

New government targets require at least an additional 5,483 homes to be built in York and North Yorkshire by 2029/2030 (Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government, 2024) although these homes will meet modern safety regulations, significantly reducing fire risk. Even in older buildings, renovation and improvement works to modern standards, should also reduce fire risk.

Who is at risk?

We have explored the factors that increase the likelihood of a dwelling fire as well as the factors that put people at greater risk of dying in a house fire. The people most likely
to experience a fire are:

• those living in rented households rather than owner occupiers;
• those living in flats rather than those in a house;
•  those under the age of 60;
• those living in a household with five or more members rather than those living in smaller households; and
• those with a long-term illness or disability rather than those without.

However, national data (NFCC, 2022) show that there are factors that put people more at risk of dying in a fire, including not being able to self-evacuate. These are:

• older people (65+);
• people with mobility issues;
• those that live alone; and
• people who live in more deprived areas.

Those over 65 represent the largest proportion of fire fatalities and injuries in our Service area. Nationally in the year ending March 2024 there were 7.3 fire-related deaths per million population in the 65-79 years age bracket and 10.9 per million in those 80 years and over (HMG Home Office, 2024)

The region has a higher proportion of elderly residents, with 24% of the population aged 65 and over, compared to the national average of 18%. This trend is more pronounced
in North Yorkshire, while York’s age profile is similar to the national average. The number of people aged over 65 is expected to increase from 155,000 in 2020 to 190,800 by 2030. While these people may be less likely to have a fire, if they do, the consequences could be more severe. 25% of the over 65 population are estimated to have a limiting long-term illness whose day-to-day activities are limited. This is projected to increase from 38,824 in 2020 to 48,218 by 2030 (North Yorkshire Health and Wellbeing Board, 2024).

Combined fire risk

The National Fire Chiefs Council (NFCC), in collaboration with ORH, produced a methodology for dwelling fire risk categorisation as part of the NFCC’s Definition of Risk project.

NFCC and ORH took a data-driven approach to researching the risk factors that underpin the likelihood and consequence of dwelling fires. This is primarily based on place and property data, rather than people. Working with ORH we have applied this methodology, using publicly available data, to determine risk in York and North Yorkshire. To test the data, ORH calculated the number of dwelling fires per 1,000 people per year according to the likelihood category. These distinct bandings support the application of the risk methodology.

Please see pages 20/21 of the PDF document for the bandings and map

We have also worked with ORH to produce information at household level, using the MOSAIC data set, which can help us pinpoint people who would most benefit from support and advice (Experian, n.d.). We use this data to focus our engagement, and this has enabled us to carry out over 2,000 more Home Fire Safety Visits through 2024 to High and Very High households ensuring that we are targeting those most vulnerable in our communities.

We work closely with partner agencies such as North Yorkshire Council, City of York Council and the NHS to share information about those who are vulnerable to fire and would benefit from some support and advice. Since the last CRMP, we’ve enhanced our approach by introducing a dedicated team member to strengthen links with our partners. Alongside our ongoing work with ORH, we also use data from North Yorkshire Council to pinpoint areas of vulnerability – such as communities with high levels of fuel poverty or significant numbers of recent arrivals from overseas. We use this data to guide our safety campaigns, helping us target the right communities and ensure our messages reach those who need them most. For example, ensuring we provide relevant information in the right language when engaging with people who may not have English as a first language.